Palin’s Next Big Problem

A Look at the Former Governor’s Options

Sarah Palin’s resignation speech unwittingly painted her into a corner that now threatens her future.  The former Alaska governor needs serious professional public relations advice whether she knows it or not.  She set a contextual expectation that’s almost impossible to meet.

Palin resigned with the stated aim to do more for Alaska from outside the governor’s office.  Failure to do so will almost certainly end her career in public life, because she set a standard that directly reflects on her credibility and intelligence.

It’s well known she has a multi-million dollar book deal.  That arrangement was made prior to her resignation and therefore is of little consequence from a PR perspective.  Everything she does after the book publishes will be measured against her stated objective of being more effective for her state.  That’s a very tall order.

Palin’s options include:

Media Personality - It would be wonderfully ironic for a person who has so vehemently decried the media to become a member of the same troupe.  It could be spun to argue she’s improving the quality of public discourse, but that has no direct impact on Alaska or the voters who trusted that she’d finish her term.  It would have a significant effect on her income however.  Many Palin detractors will probably prefer this choice, because the resulting discredit would badly damage her value as a political force.

Party Leader - Palin could use the next few years traveling the political circuit and learning about national and international politics in preparation for a presidential run in 2012.  This alternative won’t likely have many benefits for Alaskans either, and it underscores the fact that she was unprepared in 2008.  This will likely be perceived as self-serving and the desertion of a less attractive office.  Her exit also made no friends among the media, and that’s a hurdle she’ll have to face if she runs again.  She created the measurement standard of helping Alaskans more, and the press will be waiting to ask how she did so.  I wouldn’t expect any softballs from reporters either.

Non-Profit Leadership - Being the leader of a social cause could potentially be helpful for Alaskans and create the mantle of leadership she sorely lacks now.  The difficulty with this path is twofold.  First, there’s little money in it for her.  The lack of adequate remuneration will increase credibility but will do nothing for the staggering bills she has accumulated while fending off ethics charges.  Second, it will be difficult to argue that leadership for a single cause does more for Alaskans than the sweeping power of the governor’s office.  Such a position will not keep her in the news cycle and has the potential to make her look slightly naïve at the same time.

Corporate Leadership/Sponsorship - Cozying up to the business community could bring jobs and notoriety to Alaska.  However this channel has the same measurement issues of having greater effect than she could have had as governor and the degree to which any arrangement benefits her financially.  The ratio of effectiveness to monetary reward is almost impossible to get right - unless of course you’re a governor whose pay level is relatively modest compared to the amount of influence the office affords.

A good public relations person would never have allowed such a difficult set of expectations to be set.  Her only option is an amalgamation of all of the above with a barnstorming style that will be difficult to physically perform.  The problem of setting up such an ambitious agenda will also be formidable.  She has a glimmer of hope if she can trade her notoriety with groups or causes that need attention, however after being so acerbic to the media, it better happen fast and be very newsworthy.

My professional assessment is that Palin’s public days are nearly over.  She may have some speaking engagements for a while, but the bloom will be off her political rose long before 2012.

You heard it here first.